THE NUMBER OF VIRGINIA'S COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES THAT ARE LOSING POPULATION IS INCREASING

The number of Virginia’s counties and independent cities that are losing population is increasing, according to the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center.

Between 2000 and 2003, Virginia’s average annual growth rate remained the same as it was during the 1990s, but areas that are growing rapidly are limited to relatively few localities, and all except Alexandria are suburban, says Julia Martin, Director of the Center’s Demographics & Workforce Section.

Counties and cities have very different growth patterns. Since 2000, Virginia’s counties have gained almost 11 times as many people as its independent cities, accounting for all but 26,157 of the state’s estimated 307,300-person growth. Not surprisingly in a state where net migration drives growth, it accounted for 87 percent of all the growth in counties.
Six of the seven counties with growth rates of 10 percent or more lie in major metro areas. Once again, Loudoun tops the list, with an extremely high growth rate of 32 percent, followed by two other Northern Virginia counties, Spotsylvania and Stafford. Fluvanna County, in the Charlottesville metro area, has dropped from its former rank as second to fourth, followed by Prince William, Powhatan, and James City Counties.

At the other end of the scale, the list of counties that lost population has grown since the 1990s, from 8 to 26. Almost all are in either Southwest or Southside, long the state’s most economically depressed areas.
In 2003, almost a third of Virginia’s population lived in its 29 independent cities, a large majority—64 percent—in cities with populations of 100,000 or more. (The 2000 Census counted eight Virginia independent cities in this category; however, by 2001, Portsmouth’s population had dropped to 98,900.) However, three of these cities are estimated to be actually losing population.

In fact, of Virginia’s 39 independent cities, 20, or just over half, are estimated to be losing population, with most of the losses resulting from net out-migration. The smallest cities, those with populations under 10,000, are the most vulnerable to population loss. However, cities in the next largest size class, 10,000 to 24,999, are actually the least vulnerable, with over half of the 15 either holding their own or gaining.

• See an an Excel file of the 2003 population estimates and growth rates for all Virginia localities and regions.
• Estimated % Growth in Virginia's Localities, 2000-2003 (map)

Julia Martin can be reached at 434.982.5581 or 434.977.6025, or via e-mail at jhm3c@virginia.edu